Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Florida25-9 | AAC | 87.7 | 66.5 | +21.2 | 43.9 | 33.2 | 74.4 | 42.7 | 17.2 |
| 2 |  Tulsa30-8 | AAC | 85.6 | 74.0 | +11.6 | 47.7 | 38.8 | 78.1 | 38.0 | 15.6 |
| 3 |  UAB20-12 | AAC | 79.2 | 71.3 | +7.9 | 44.3 | 28.1 | 70.5 | 39.9 | 14.3 |
| 4 |  Wichita State24-12 | AAC | 77.6 | 70.7 | +6.9 | 44.2 | 34.1 | 69.0 | 41.0 | 11.6 |
| 5 |  FAU15-17 | AAC | 80.6 | 76.0 | +4.6 | 45.7 | 35.1 | 68.9 | 37.9 | 14.8 |
| 6 |  Temple16-16 | AAC | 73.9 | 71.8 | +2.1 | 44.7 | 33.8 | 74.7 | 33.7 | 12.3 |
| 7 |  North Texas19-14 | AAC | 70.9 | 69.4 | +1.5 | 42.5 | 30.0 | 69.3 | 35.2 | 12.6 |
| 8 |  Rice13-18 | AAC | 73.9 | 75.5 | -1.6 | 42.0 | 34.8 | 68.5 | 38.1 | 12.2 |
| 9 |  Tulane18-15 | AAC | 72.4 | 77.4 | -5.0 | 42.3 | 32.1 | 76.6 | 31.1 | 12.8 |
| 10 |  East Carolina11-20 | AAC | 71.5 | 79.5 | -8.0 | 41.9 | 28.8 | 70.4 | 36.5 | 11.8 |
| 11 |  Memphis13-19 | AAC | 75.2 | 83.8 | -8.6 | 43.4 | 31.6 | 72.1 | 36.8 | 13.3 |
| 12 |  UTSA5-25 | AAC | 69.5 | 84.6 | -15.1 | 39.8 | 29.7 | 69.1 | 36.2 | 10.9 |
AAC