Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Providence15-18 | Big East | 85.3 | - | +85.3 | 47.6 | 36.4 | 75.7 | 38.5 | 14.0 |
| 2 |  Butler16-16 | Big East | 79.4 | - | +79.4 | 45.2 | 32.7 | 71.9 | 37.8 | 15.5 |
| 3 |  Xavier15-18 | Big East | 78.4 | - | +78.4 | 44.4 | 36.5 | 72.9 | 34.3 | 17.4 |
| 4 |  Marquette12-20 | Big East | 75.2 | - | +75.2 | 43.8 | 31.7 | 67.5 | 34.2 | 15.5 |
| 5 |  Creighton15-17 | Big East | 75.1 | - | +75.1 | 44.8 | 34.5 | 76.0 | 35.2 | 15.5 |
| 6 |  Georgetown16-18 | Big East | 73.6 | - | +73.6 | 44.0 | 31.8 | 74.0 | 35.6 | 14.8 |
| 7 |  Seton Hall21-12 | Big East | 70.3 | - | +70.3 | 43.5 | 30.5 | 72.3 | 35.8 | 13.1 |
| 8 |  DePaul16-16 | Big East | 70.3 | - | +70.3 | 43.5 | 32.5 | 69.2 | 33.3 | 15.0 |
| #10 | St. John's30-7 | Big East | 81.6 | 66.0 | +15.6 | 45.4 | 33.2 | 72.7 | 38.6 | 16.3 |
| #7 | UConn33-5 | Big East | 77.5 | 65.8 | +11.8 | 48.2 | 35.2 | 71.6 | 36.6 | 18.4 |
| 11 | Villanova24-9 | Big East | 77.2 | 86.0 | -8.8 | 45.7 | 35.3 | 69.4 | 34.5 | 15.5 |
AAC