Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UNLV | MWC | 79.4 | - | +79.4 | 47.0 | 34.9 | 68.7 | 35.0 | 14.2 |
| 2 |  Boise State | MWC | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 45.3 | 34.2 | 78.6 | 36.1 | 13.0 |
| 3 |  San Diego State | MWC | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 73.1 | 35.5 | 15.0 |
| 4 |  Nevada | MWC | 75.9 | - | +75.9 | 43.9 | 36.2 | 75.2 | 36.0 | 14.2 |
AAC