Tournament Analysis
Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
Cinderella Watch
(32 dark horses)Upset Alert
(0 candidates)No upcoming upset candidates available yet. Check back once games are scheduled.
Historical Seed Matchup Rates
Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
Conference Tracker
(31 conferences in the field)
Power Rankings
(4 teams)
AAC| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State20-12 | MWC | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 45.3 | 34.2 | 78.6 | 36.1 | 13.0 |
| 2 |  San Diego State22-11 | MWC | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 73.1 | 35.5 | 15.0 |
| 3 |  Nevada24-13 | MWC | 75.9 | 71.0 | +4.9 | 43.9 | 36.2 | 75.2 | 36.0 | 14.2 |
| 4 |  UNLV18-17 | MWC | 79.4 | 74.5 | +4.9 | 47.0 | 34.9 | 68.7 | 35.0 | 14.2 |