Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Francisco17-16 | WCC | 74.7 | - | +74.7 | 43.7 | 34.7 | 71.3 | 36.1 | 13.9 |
| 2 |  Pacific18-15 | WCC | 72.7 | - | +72.7 | 46.6 | 36.0 | 75.4 | 38.2 | 15.3 |
| 3 |  Pepperdine9-23 | WCC | 72.3 | - | +72.3 | 42.7 | 31.7 | 75.0 | 33.9 | 14.1 |
| 4 |  LMU9-24 | WCC | 66.8 | - | +66.8 | 42.2 | 31.7 | 67.3 | 34.1 | 13.9 |
| #12 | Gonzaga31-4 | WCC | 85.1 | 69.0 | +16.1 | 51.0 | 34.0 | 69.9 | 39.9 | 18.3 |
| #22 | Saint Mary's27-6 | WCC | 78.2 | 63.0 | +15.2 | 46.1 | 38.9 | 80.5 | 40.3 | 15.5 |
| 7 |  Portland19-18 | WCC | 78.9 | 84.5 | -5.6 | 44.3 | 33.4 | 75.3 | 34.0 | 11.9 |
| 8 | Santa Clara26-9 | WCC | 82.9 | 89.0 | -6.1 | 46.8 | 34.6 | 73.6 | 35.7 | 16.8 |
AAC