Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville | ACC | 84.8 | - | +84.8 | 47.0 | 35.7 | 76.9 | 38.5 | 17.1 |
| 2 |  SMU | ACC | 84.2 | - | +84.2 | 49.0 | 37.4 | 74.1 | 37.7 | 16.9 |
| 3 | NC State | ACC | 83.7 | - | +83.7 | 46.8 | 38.8 | 76.8 | 34.5 | 15.6 |
| 4 | Duke | ACC | 82.3 | - | +82.3 | 49.0 | 35.1 | 72.4 | 40.3 | 16.9 |
| 5 | Miami | ACC | 81.9 | - | +81.9 | 50.1 | 34.7 | 68.5 | 37.3 | 16.1 |
| 6 | Virginia | ACC | 80.6 | - | +80.6 | 46.3 | 35.9 | 72.6 | 40.2 | 16.6 |
| 7 |  Florida State | ACC | 80.4 | - | +80.4 | 44.0 | 33.1 | 71.3 | 35.3 | 14.3 |
| 8 | North Carolina | ACC | 79.8 | - | +79.8 | 47.3 | 34.5 | 68.4 | 38.0 | 16.0 |
| 9 |  Wake Forest | ACC | 78.8 | - | +78.8 | 45.0 | 34.4 | 77.4 | 33.2 | 14.3 |
| 10 |  Virginia Tech | ACC | 78.8 | - | +78.8 | 45.2 | 35.5 | 74.3 | 34.8 | 14.4 |
| 11 | Cal | ACC | 77.9 | - | +77.9 | 44.3 | 36.1 | 77.9 | 34.8 | 13.7 |
| 12 |  Stanford | ACC | 76.0 | - | +76.0 | 43.8 | 35.6 | 73.1 | 33.7 | 11.9 |
| 13 |  Syracuse | ACC | 75.0 | - | +75.0 | 46.5 | 32.9 | 64.8 | 34.2 | 12.8 |
| 14 |  Notre Dame | ACC | 74.5 | - | +74.5 | 44.5 | 35.6 | 69.7 | 36.6 | 12.3 |
| 15 | Clemson | ACC | 74.1 | - | +74.1 | 45.3 | 34.1 | 72.6 | 34.3 | 12.8 |
| 16 |  Georgia Tech | ACC | 73.8 | - | +73.8 | 44.2 | 35.1 | 71.1 | 37.1 | 15.8 |
| 17 |  Pittsburgh | ACC | 70.5 | - | +70.5 | 43.9 | 33.4 | 67.4 | 34.5 | 13.2 |
| 18 |  Boston College | ACC | 67.4 | - | +67.4 | 40.8 | 29.4 | 65.3 | 36.6 | 11.3 |
AAC