Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | SEC | 91.7 | - | +91.7 | 45.8 | 35.8 | 76.5 | 40.6 | 16.1 |
| 2 | Arkansas | SEC | 89.9 | - | +89.9 | 50.0 | 38.9 | 74.7 | 36.1 | 17.0 |
| 3 | Georgia | SEC | 89.8 | - | +89.8 | 47.1 | 34.1 | 75.4 | 38.2 | 14.9 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | SEC | 87.7 | - | +87.7 | 45.8 | 36.2 | 73.7 | 37.7 | 18.1 |
| 5 | Florida | SEC | 86.8 | - | +86.8 | 47.8 | 30.8 | 71.0 | 45.4 | 16.6 |
| 6 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 86.4 | - | +86.4 | 47.5 | 35.5 | 79.3 | 35.3 | 16.4 |
| 7 | Texas | SEC | 83.8 | - | +83.8 | 48.6 | 35.3 | 75.2 | 37.7 | 12.3 |
| 8 |  Oklahoma | SEC | 82.7 | - | +82.7 | 47.0 | 36.8 | 74.5 | 35.8 | 14.3 |
| 9 | Auburn | SEC | 82.7 | - | +82.7 | 45.7 | 33.8 | 74.4 | 36.4 | 12.7 |
| 10 |  LSU | SEC | 81.4 | - | +81.4 | 47.1 | 33.1 | 76.4 | 36.9 | 14.7 |
| 11 | Kentucky | SEC | 80.8 | - | +80.8 | 46.4 | 34.1 | 72.8 | 37.5 | 16.0 |
| 12 |  Missouri | SEC | 79.7 | - | +79.7 | 49.0 | 35.0 | 68.6 | 35.6 | 14.1 |
| 13 | Tennessee | SEC | 79.5 | - | +79.5 | 46.3 | 33.4 | 69.4 | 42.6 | 16.9 |
| 14 |  Mississippi State | SEC | 77.6 | - | +77.6 | 45.0 | 32.4 | 66.0 | 38.2 | 12.8 |
| 15 |  Ole Miss | SEC | 75.9 | - | +75.9 | 44.6 | 33.2 | 74.9 | 34.3 | 13.5 |
| 16 |  South Carolina | SEC | 74.9 | - | +74.9 | 43.4 | 31.1 | 78.1 | 32.6 | 13.3 |
AAC