Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Michigan37-3 | Big Ten | 86.8 | 70.1 | +16.7 | 50.5 | 36.0 | 74.7 | 40.0 | 18.5 |
| #5 | Illinois28-9 | Big Ten | 84.4 | 73.3 | +11.1 | 46.3 | 34.7 | 78.9 | 40.7 | 14.7 |
| #14 | Nebraska28-7 | Big Ten | 77.3 | 66.7 | +10.6 | 46.5 | 35.3 | 75.0 | 34.9 | 18.0 |
| 4 | Ohio State21-13 | Big Ten | 79.8 | 71.5 | +8.3 | 49.3 | 36.0 | 77.5 | 33.2 | 14.4 |
| #6 | Purdue30-9 | Big Ten | 81.7 | 74.0 | +7.7 | 49.9 | 37.9 | 74.3 | 35.4 | 19.9 |
| #25 | Wisconsin24-11 | Big Ten | 83.0 | 76.2 | +6.8 | 45.0 | 36.1 | 78.6 | 35.5 | 16.0 |
| #15 | Iowa24-13 | Big Ten | 75.2 | 71.0 | +4.2 | 49.1 | 35.7 | 77.0 | 29.4 | 15.3 |
| 8 | UCLA24-12 | Big Ten | 77.7 | 73.8 | +3.9 | 47.1 | 38.2 | 76.7 | 32.3 | 16.3 |
| 9 |  Northwestern15-19 | Big Ten | 73.1 | 70.4 | +2.7 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 75.1 | 30.5 | 17.2 |
| 10 |  Washington16-17 | Big Ten | 77.1 | 74.4 | +2.7 | 45.8 | 31.5 | 76.4 | 37.2 | 13.9 |
| 11 | Indiana18-14 | Big Ten | 78.2 | 75.7 | +2.5 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 78.0 | 32.4 | 16.6 |
| 12 |  Minnesota15-18 | Big Ten | 70.0 | 67.9 | +2.1 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 70.0 | 31.0 | 17.4 |
| #11 | Michigan State27-8 | Big Ten | 78.9 | 77.2 | +1.7 | 47.1 | 35.9 | 76.3 | 39.8 | 18.5 |
| 14 |  Maryland12-21 | Big Ten | 69.7 | 71.0 | -1.3 | 40.7 | 31.7 | 72.2 | 35.4 | 10.5 |
| 15 |  Oregon12-20 | Big Ten | 70.8 | 72.6 | -1.8 | 42.6 | 32.1 | 73.0 | 34.4 | 14.3 |
| 16 |  Rutgers14-20 | Big Ten | 70.6 | 72.5 | -1.9 | 41.8 | 32.8 | 74.1 | 32.7 | 12.3 |
| 17 |  USC18-14 | Big Ten | 78.6 | 83.7 | -5.1 | 45.4 | 31.4 | 72.4 | 36.5 | 15.3 |
| 18 |  Penn State12-20 | Big Ten | 73.7 | 81.5 | -7.8 | 46.9 | 32.4 | 75.0 | 29.0 | 12.7 |
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