Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | Big Ten | 86.8 | - | +86.8 | 50.5 | 36.0 | 74.7 | 40.0 | 18.5 |
| 2 | Illinois | Big Ten | 84.4 | - | +84.4 | 46.3 | 34.7 | 78.9 | 40.7 | 14.7 |
| 3 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 83.0 | - | +83.0 | 45.0 | 36.1 | 78.6 | 35.5 | 16.0 |
| 4 | Purdue | Big Ten | 81.7 | - | +81.7 | 49.9 | 37.9 | 74.3 | 35.4 | 19.9 |
| 5 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 79.8 | - | +79.8 | 49.3 | 36.0 | 77.5 | 33.2 | 14.4 |
| 6 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 78.9 | - | +78.9 | 47.1 | 35.9 | 76.3 | 39.8 | 18.5 |
| 7 |  USC | Big Ten | 78.6 | - | +78.6 | 45.4 | 31.4 | 72.4 | 36.5 | 15.3 |
| 8 | Indiana | Big Ten | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 78.0 | 32.4 | 16.6 |
| 9 | UCLA | Big Ten | 77.7 | - | +77.7 | 47.1 | 38.2 | 76.7 | 32.3 | 16.3 |
| 10 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 77.3 | - | +77.3 | 46.5 | 35.3 | 75.0 | 34.9 | 18.0 |
| 11 |  Washington | Big Ten | 77.1 | - | +77.1 | 45.8 | 31.5 | 76.4 | 37.2 | 13.9 |
| 12 | Iowa | Big Ten | 75.2 | - | +75.2 | 49.1 | 35.7 | 77.0 | 29.4 | 15.3 |
| 13 |  Penn State | Big Ten | 73.7 | - | +73.7 | 46.9 | 32.4 | 75.0 | 29.0 | 12.7 |
| 14 |  Northwestern | Big Ten | 73.1 | - | +73.1 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 75.1 | 30.5 | 17.2 |
| 15 |  Oregon | Big Ten | 70.8 | - | +70.8 | 42.6 | 32.1 | 73.0 | 34.4 | 14.3 |
| 16 |  Rutgers | Big Ten | 70.6 | - | +70.6 | 41.8 | 32.8 | 74.1 | 32.7 | 12.3 |
| 17 |  Minnesota | Big Ten | 70.0 | - | +70.0 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 70.0 | 31.0 | 17.4 |
| 18 |  Maryland | Big Ten | 69.7 | - | +69.7 | 40.7 | 31.7 | 72.2 | 35.4 | 10.5 |
AAC