Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | Big 12 | 86.1 | - | +86.1 | 50.2 | 36.0 | 73.4 | 42.5 | 16.9 |
| 2 |  Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 84.3 | - | +84.3 | 46.0 | 33.8 | 75.1 | 38.0 | 14.8 |
| 3 | BYU | Big 12 | 83.9 | - | +83.9 | 47.7 | 34.9 | 74.6 | 38.3 | 13.5 |
| 4 |  Baylor | Big 12 | 82.6 | - | +82.6 | 47.9 | 34.5 | 73.2 | 36.8 | 15.8 |
| 5 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 81.8 | - | +81.8 | 49.0 | 38.7 | 67.2 | 35.6 | 17.2 |
| 6 |  UCF | Big 12 | 81.0 | - | +81.0 | 46.6 | 36.2 | 74.0 | 37.2 | 15.8 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 80.4 | - | +80.4 | 46.7 | 39.3 | 71.5 | 36.9 | 15.8 |
| 8 |  Colorado | Big 12 | 80.0 | - | +80.0 | 47.0 | 35.3 | 75.7 | 34.3 | 15.7 |
| 9 |  Kansas State | Big 12 | 79.6 | - | +79.6 | 45.9 | 36.4 | 71.0 | 34.0 | 16.8 |
| 10 | TCU | Big 12 | 78.3 | - | +78.3 | 44.8 | 33.1 | 70.8 | 36.2 | 15.6 |
| 11 | Houston | Big 12 | 77.1 | - | +77.1 | 45.0 | 34.9 | 77.2 | 36.6 | 14.7 |
| 12 |  Arizona State | Big 12 | 76.3 | - | +76.3 | 44.7 | 33.4 | 75.3 | 33.2 | 13.7 |
| 13 | Kansas | Big 12 | 75.6 | - | +75.6 | 45.3 | 35.0 | 76.7 | 38.8 | 14.3 |
| 14 | Utah | Big 12 | 74.3 | - | +74.3 | 45.4 | 35.3 | 73.8 | 33.6 | 13.7 |
| 15 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 73.1 | - | +73.1 | 43.1 | 33.9 | 68.1 | 37.3 | 16.6 |
| 16 |  West Virginia | Big 12 | 69.2 | - | +69.2 | 44.1 | 32.8 | 67.7 | 34.6 | 12.8 |
AAC