How accurate these were
7 weeks · 1,752 player-weeks graded
4.62
avg miss (PPR)
5.04
last-season average
+0.48
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.42 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 121 games · lines as of 2026-10-25 13:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.6 | 43 | 4.5 | 96 | — | 1.21 | +7.2 | — |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.3 | 38 | 4.5 | 98 | — | 1.21 | +6.9 | — |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 91 | — | 1.27 | +6.8 | — |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.5 | — | — | 36 | 247 | 0.85 | +3.7 | — |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.3 | — | — | 34 | 243 | 0.87 | +3.5 | — |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 34 | 254 | 0.77 | +3.3 | — |
| 7 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 37 | 249 | 0.75 | +3.3 | — |
| 8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.8 | 36 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.13 | +5.4 | — |
| 9 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 23.8 | — | — | 20 | 252 | 0.29 | +6.0 | — |
| 10 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.5 | — | — | 34 | 240 | 0.76 | +2.7 | — |
| 11 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.4 | — | — | 32 | 243 | 0.77 | +2.7 | — |
| 12 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 23.2 | 30 | 4.5 | 91 | — | 1.11 | +4.7 | — |
| 13 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 23.1 | 44 | 5.5 | 81 | — | 0.87 | +4.6 | — |
| 14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.0 | 32 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.07 | +4.7 | — |
| 15 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 23.0 | — | — | 10 | 274 | 0.18 | +5.5 | — |
| 16 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 22.9 | — | — | 9 | 271 | 0.20 | +5.4 | — |
| 17 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.9 | 37 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.96 | +4.3 | — |
| 18 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 22.6 | 31 | 4.5 | 87 | — | 1.06 | +4.2 | — |
| 19 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.5 | — | — | 6 | 271 | 0.19 | +6.6 | A- |
| 20 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.5 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.13 | +6.6 | A- |
| 21 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 22.4 | 29 | 4.5 | 88 | — | 1.05 | +4.1 | — |
| 22 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.4 | 30 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 1.10 | +3.9 | — |
| 23 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.4 | — | — | 9 | 273 | 0.10 | +6.5 | A- |
| 24 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 22.1 | — | — | 41 | 244 | 0.39 | +6.2 | — |
| 25 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 22.1 | 48 | 5.5 | 58 | — | 1.01 | +1.4 | — |
| 26 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 22.0 | — | — | 2 | 286 | 0.08 | +5.3 | — |
| 27 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 22.0 | 94 | 7.5 | 3 | — | 0.82 | +2.6 | — |
| 28 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 22.0 | 46 | 5.5 | 68 | — | 0.86 | +1.4 | — |
| 29 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 21.9 | — | — | 1 | 282 | 0.10 | +5.2 | — |
| 30 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 21.8 | 96 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.77 | +2.4 | — |
| 31 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.7 | — | — | 1 | 281 | 0.07 | +2.5 | — |
| 32 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 21.6 | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +3.8 | — |
| 33 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.4 | — | — | 1 | 277 | 0.05 | +2.2 | — |
| 34 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 21.4 | 41 | 4.5 | 65 | — | 1.07 | +0.8 | — |
| 35 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 21.3 | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +3.5 | — |
| 36 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 21.1 | — | — | 32 | 221 | 0.53 | +0.4 | — |
| 37 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 21.1 | 28 | 3.5 | 91 | — | 0.97 | +2.6 | — |
| 38 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 21.1 | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +1.8 | — |
| 39 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 21.0 | — | — | 1 | 266 | 0.06 | +4.3 | — |
| 40 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 21.0 | — | — | 37 | 226 | 0.39 | +5.5 | — |
| 41 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 20.9 | 86 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +5.3 | — |
| 42 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 20.8 | 22 | 2.5 | 94 | — | 1.14 | +2.7 | — |
| 43 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.7 | — | — | 40 | 210 | 0.40 | +4.8 | — |
| 44 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 20.7 | 37 | 4.5 | 79 | — | 0.78 | +2.2 | — |
| 45 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.6 | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.72 | +4.2 | — |
| 46 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 20.6 | 96 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +2.9 | — |
| 47 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.6 | — | — | 40 | 220 | 0.32 | +4.7 | — |
| 48 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 20.6 | — | — | 40 | 212 | 0.37 | +5.1 | — |
| 49 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 20.6 | 85 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +4.4 | — |
| 50 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.6 | — | — | 30 | 212 | 0.53 | +2.8 | — |
| 51 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 20.5 | — | — | 30 | 250 | 0.26 | +1.2 | A- |
| 52 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.5 | 39 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 1.01 | -0.1 | — |
| 53 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.4 | 39 | 4.5 | 58 | — | 1.05 | -0.2 | — |
| 54 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 20.4 | 96 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +2.6 | — |
| 55 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 27 | 217 | 0.51 | +2.6 | — |
| 56 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 32 | 207 | 0.49 | +2.6 | — |
| 57 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 24 | 3.5 | 95 | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| 58 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 24 | 3.5 | 95 | — | 0.84 | +9.9 | — |
| 59 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 20.3 | 82 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +4.1 | — |
| 60 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 20.2 | 31 | 3.5 | 81 | — | 0.94 | +1.7 | — |
| 61 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.1 | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +3.7 | — |
| 62 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.9 | — | — | 18 | 261 | 0.29 | +5.6 | — |
| 63 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 19.9 | — | — | 31 | 219 | 0.36 | +4.0 | — |
| 64 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19.9 | 91 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.54 | +0.6 | — |
| 65 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.9 | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +2.1 | — |
| 66 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | +9.5 | — |
| 67 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | — | — |
| 68 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.9 | — | — | 36 | 214 | 0.29 | +3.4 | — |
| 69 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.9 | — | — | 33 | 230 | 0.24 | +0.6 | A- |
| 70 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.8 | 77 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.78 | +3.7 | — |
| 71 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.8 | — | — | 27 | 239 | 0.27 | +0.5 | A- |
| 72 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.8 | — | — | 29 | 224 | 0.33 | +0.5 | A- |
| 73 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.7 | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +3.6 | — |
| 74 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 19.7 | — | — | 36 | 201 | 0.36 | +4.2 | — |
| 75 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 19.7 | — | — | 25 | 238 | 0.29 | +3.8 | — |
| 76 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.7 | — | — | 31 | 214 | 0.35 | +3.2 | — |
| 77 | Jalon DanielsQB · TB | 19.7 | — | — | 45 | 185 | 0.30 | — | — |
| 78 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 19.6 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.78 | +6.7 | — |
| 79 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | — | — |
| 80 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | +9.2 | — |
| 81 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 19.6 | 18 | 2.5 | 91 | — | 1.05 | +1.4 | — |
| 82 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.5 | — | — | 16 | 254 | 0.30 | +5.1 | — |
| 83 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.5 | 21 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.83 | — | — |
| 84 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.5 | 81 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +3.3 | — |
| 85 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.5 | 93 | 6.5 | 1 | — | 0.61 | +1.7 | — |
| 86 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.5 | 21 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.83 | +9.1 | — |
| 87 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 19.5 | 36 | 4.5 | 72 | — | 0.71 | +0.9 | — |
| 88 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 19.4 | 82 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +3.0 | — |
| 89 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.4 | — | — | 24 | 234 | 0.28 | +0.1 | A- |
| 90 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19.4 | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.58 | 0.0 | — |
| 91 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.3 | — | — | 15 | 259 | 0.25 | +0.7 | A- |
| 92 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 19.3 | — | — | 20 | 243 | 0.28 | +1.5 | — |
| 93 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 28 | 230 | 0.23 | 0.0 | A- |
| 94 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 27 | 224 | 0.28 | 0.0 | A- |
| 95 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 19.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 0.81 | -1.4 | — |
| 96 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 19.3 | — | — | 11 | 280 | 0.17 | +1.7 | — |
| 97 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 19.2 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +6.3 | — |
| 98 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.2 | — | — | 27 | 230 | 0.22 | -0.1 | A- |
| 99 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.2 | — | — | 21 | 243 | 0.24 | +4.8 | — |
| 100 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 19.1 | — | — | 19 | 244 | 0.26 | +1.4 | — |
| 101 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | — | — |
| 102 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | +8.7 | — |
| 103 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 19.1 | — | — | 18 | 239 | 0.30 | +1.3 | — |
| 104 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 19.1 | 75 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.69 | +3.5 | — |
| 105 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 19.1 | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +5.3 | — |
| 106 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.0 | — | — | 18 | 232 | 0.33 | +0.4 | A- |
| 107 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 19.0 | — | — | 24 | 221 | 0.30 | +4.0 | — |
| 108 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 19.0 | — | — | 7 | 290 | 0.12 | +3.6 | — |
| 109 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.9 | — | — | 25 | 226 | 0.24 | +1.2 | — |
| 110 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.9 | — | — | 23 | 237 | 0.20 | +1.8 | — |
| 111 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.8 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +2.4 | — |
| 112 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.8 | — | — | 13 | 268 | 0.15 | +1.3 | — |
| 113 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 18.8 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.64 | -0.5 | — |
| 114 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.7 | — | — | 24 | 230 | 0.20 | +1.0 | — |
| 115 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 18.7 | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +2.6 | — |
| 116 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 18.7 | — | — | 26 | 227 | 0.18 | +3.7 | — |
| 117 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.7 | — | — | 12 | 264 | 0.17 | +1.2 | — |
| 118 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 18.7 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.69 | +6.7 | — |
| 119 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 18.7 | — | — | 30 | 210 | 0.22 | — | — |
| 120 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.16 | +2.9 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →