How accurate these were
1 week · 253 player-weeks graded
6.13
avg miss (PPR)
5.49
last-season average
-3.85
bias · ran rich
Last season's per-game average is currently beating these by 0.64 PPR. Posting that is the point of running the test.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 17 games · lines as of 2026-09-15 17:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 34.3 | 60 | 6.5 | 150 | — | 1.15 | +16.0 | A |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 32.3 | — | — | 50 | 320 | 0.76 | +11.5 | A |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 31.8 | 60 | 6.5 | 130 | — | 1.06 | +13.4 | A |
| 4 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 30.8 | — | — | 70 | 300 | 0.32 | +14.9 | — |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 30.7 | — | — | 20 | 350 | 0.13 | +14.8 | — |
| 6 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 29.8 | — | — | 60 | 290 | 0.37 | +13.3 | — |
| 7 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 29.7 | — | — | 50 | 300 | 0.47 | +12.0 | — |
| 8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 28.8 | 140 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +12.4 | — |
| 9 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 28.7 | 70 | 6.5 | 110 | — | 0.71 | +10.2 | — |
| 10 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 28.6 | — | — | 40 | 330 | 0.24 | +14.2 | — |
| 11 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 28.2 | — | — | 50 | 290 | 0.28 | +13.3 | — |
| 12 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 27.9 | — | — | 40 | 300 | 0.33 | +9.3 | — |
| 13 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 27.4 | — | — | 40 | 310 | 0.18 | +9.7 | — |
| 14 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | 27.4 | 150 | 9.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +17.3 | — |
| 15 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 27.3 | — | — | 40 | 310 | 0.16 | +11.7 | — |
| 16 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 27.3 | 80 | 7.5 | 90 | — | 0.47 | +10.1 | — |
| 17 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 27.1 | — | — | 60 | 300 | 0.53 | +6.3 | A |
| 18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 27.1 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +10.9 | — |
| 19 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 27.0 | — | — | 40 | 300 | 0.18 | +9.9 | — |
| 20 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 27.0 | — | — | 25 | 340 | 0.16 | +9.4 | — |
| 21 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 26.8 | 40 | 4.5 | 130 | — | 0.90 | +8.6 | — |
| 22 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 26.7 | 130 | 9.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +10.5 | — |
| 23 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 26.2 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +15.6 | — |
| 24 | Justin JeffersonLB · CLE | 26.2 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +15.6 | — |
| 25 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 26.1 | — | — | 25 | 310 | 0.21 | +9.5 | — |
| 26 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 25.8 | 60 | 5.5 | 100 | — | 0.74 | +11.3 | — |
| 27 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 25.5 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +9.9 | — |
| 28 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 25.5 | — | — | 30 | 300 | 0.09 | +10.7 | — |
| 29 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 25.4 | — | — | 30 | 290 | 0.14 | +6.5 | — |
| 30 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 25.3 | — | — | 30 | 280 | 0.20 | +11.5 | — |
| 31 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 25.3 | 130 | 9.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +11.0 | — |
| 32 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 24.9 | — | — | 10 | 340 | 0.07 | +8.2 | — |
| 33 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 24.5 | 50 | 5.5 | 100 | — | 0.69 | +14.1 | — |
| 34 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 24.5 | 50 | 5.5 | 100 | — | 0.69 | — | — |
| 35 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 24.4 | — | — | 8 | 325 | 0.10 | +9.0 | — |
| 36 | James CookRB · BUF | 24.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 120 | — | 0.64 | +8.9 | A |
| 37 | James CookRB · BUF | 24.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 120 | — | 0.64 | — | A |
| 38 | Malik WillisQB · MIA | 24.1 | — | — | 70 | 250 | 0.20 | +10.5 | — |
| 39 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 24.0 | — | — | — | 340 | 0.06 | +7.2 | — |
| 40 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 23.5 | 120 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +10.6 | — |
| 41 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 23.4 | 170 | 6.5 | — | — | — | +12.5 | — |
| 42 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 23.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 110 | — | 0.61 | +10.3 | — |
| 43 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 22.9 | 50 | 4.5 | 100 | — | 0.58 | +11.3 | — |
| 44 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 22.8 | — | — | 40 | 290 | 0.20 | +5.6 | — |
| 45 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 22.6 | 25 | 3.5 | 120 | — | 0.78 | +9.3 | — |
| 46 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 22.4 | — | — | 30 | 325 | 0.08 | +6.7 | — |
| 47 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 22.3 | 25 | 1.5 | 130 | — | 0.90 | +7.9 | — |
| 48 | George PickensWR · DAL | 22.3 | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +7.6 | — |
| 49 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 22.3 | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +9.4 | — |
| 50 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 22.2 | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +9.7 | — |
| 51 | Kirk CousinsQB · LV | 22.2 | — | — | 10 | 275 | 0.04 | +10.5 | — |
| 52 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 21.8 | 110 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +9.6 | A- |
| 53 | Aaron RodgersQB · PIT | 21.7 | — | — | 1 | 280 | 0.07 | +7.4 | — |
| 54 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 21.6 | 110 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +10.7 | — |
| 55 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 20.7 | 110 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +10.0 | — |
| 56 | Cameron Ward— | 20.5 | — | — | 30 | 270 | 0.12 | — | — |
| 57 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 20.4 | — | — | 40 | 240 | 0.15 | — | — |
| 58 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 20.3 | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +11.1 | — |
| 59 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 20.2 | 25 | 3.5 | 100 | — | 0.72 | +7.6 | — |
| 60 | Cameron Skattebo— | 20.1 | 40 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.62 | — | A |
| 61 | D.J. MooreWR · BUF | 20.1 | 110 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +10.8 | A |
| 62 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 20.0 | 110 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +8.9 | — |
| 63 | Geno SmithQB · NYJ | 20.0 | — | — | 20 | 290 | 0.08 | +7.7 | — |
| 64 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 20.0 | 92 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.54 | +0.7 | — |
| 65 | Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI | 19.9 | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +12.0 | — |
| 66 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 19.9 | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +10.1 | — |
| 67 | Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NO | 19.8 | 25 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.65 | +6.6 | — |
| 68 | Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NO | 19.8 | 25 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.65 | — | — |
| 69 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | 19.7 | 110 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +8.3 | — |
| 70 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 19.5 | — | — | 50 | 181 | 0.22 | +4.0 | — |
| 71 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 19.5 | 25 | 3.5 | 100 | — | 0.60 | +7.8 | — |
| 72 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 19.5 | 50 | 4.5 | 70 | — | 0.52 | +7.4 | — |
| 73 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 19.4 | 40 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 0.82 | -1.2 | — |
| 74 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | 19.2 | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +5.2 | A- |
| 75 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.1 | — | — | 26 | 231 | 0.22 | -0.2 | — |
| 76 | Emeka EgbukaWR · TB | 19.1 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +8.8 | — |
| 77 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 19.1 | 25 | 2.5 | 110 | — | 0.53 | +6.3 | — |
| 78 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | 19.0 | 110 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +7.6 | — |
| 79 | David MontgomeryRB · HOU | 18.9 | 25 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.67 | +9.6 | — |
| 80 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 18.9 | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +9.1 | — |
| 81 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 18.7 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +8.4 | A- |
| 82 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 18.7 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +8.1 | — |
| 83 | DeVonta SmithCB · CAR | 18.7 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +8.1 | — |
| 84 | Rico DowdleRB · PIT | 18.6 | 40 | 3.5 | 80 | — | 0.53 | +7.1 | — |
| 85 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.4 | — | — | 19 | 239 | 0.17 | +0.6 | — |
| 86 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.2 | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +4.5 | — |
| 87 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 18.1 | 25 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.54 | +10.0 | — |
| 88 | Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL | 18.1 | — | — | 10 | 270 | 0.06 | +5.8 | — |
| 89 | Michael MayerTE · LV | 18.0 | 80 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +12.4 | — |
| 90 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 18.0 | 100 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +9.0 | A |
| 91 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 17.9 | 25 | 3.5 | 120 | — | — | +5.6 | — |
| 92 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 17.9 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +0.1 | — |
| 93 | Chris GodwinWR · TB | 17.7 | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +9.5 | — |
| 94 | Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE | 17.5 | 25 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.43 | +6.6 | — |
| 95 | D.J. MooreWR · BUF | 17.4 | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +8.1 | A |
| 96 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.1 | — | — | 120 | — | 0.86 | — | A |
| 97 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.1 | — | — | 120 | — | 0.86 | +1.7 | A |
| 98 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 17.0 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +7.4 | — |
| 99 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | 17.0 | 25 | 3.5 | 80 | — | 0.51 | +10.7 | — |
| 100 | DK MetcalfWR · PIT | 17.0 | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +6.0 | — |
| 101 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 16.8 | — | — | 1 | 263 | 0.05 | -2.4 | — |
| 102 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 16.8 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +7.2 | — |
| 103 | Kenneth Gainwell— | 16.8 | 50 | 5.5 | 40 | — | 0.39 | — | — |
| 104 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 16.7 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +6.7 | — |
| 105 | Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | 16.6 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +7.2 | A |
| 106 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 16.5 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +7.1 | — |
| 107 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 16.5 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +4.5 | — |
| 108 | Sam DarnoldQB · SEA | 16.3 | — | — | 6 | 229 | 0.10 | +2.3 | — |
| 109 | Josh DownsWR · IND | 16.3 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +8.2 | — |
| 110 | Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN | 16.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 0.31 | +8.0 | — |
| 111 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | 15.9 | 25 | 2.5 | 80 | — | 0.51 | +5.8 | — |
| 112 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN | 15.9 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +4.1 | — |
| 113 | Cooper RushQB · ATL | 15.9 | — | — | — | 240 | 0.05 | +7.7 | — |
| 114 | Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI | 15.8 | 110 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.22 | +9.8 | — |
| 115 | Rome OdunzeWR · CHI | 15.8 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +5.3 | — |
| 116 | Michael Pittman Jr.WR · PIT | 15.7 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +5.1 | — |
| 117 | Michael Pittman Jr.WR · PIT | 15.7 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | — | — |
| 118 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 15.6 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +5.0 | — |
| 119 | Stefon DiggsWR · WAS | 15.5 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +4.5 | — |
| 120 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 15.4 | 25 | 3.5 | 58 | — | 0.62 | +4.1 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →