How accurate these were
7 weeks · 1,752 player-weeks graded
4.62
avg miss (PPR)
5.04
last-season average
+0.48
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.42 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 121 games · lines as of 2026-10-18 13:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 22.0 | 94 | 7.5 | 3 | — | 0.82 | +2.6 | — |
| 2 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 21.8 | 96 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.77 | +2.4 | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 21.6 | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +3.8 | — |
| 4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 21.3 | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +3.5 | — |
| 5 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 21.1 | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +1.8 | — |
| 6 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.6 | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.72 | +4.2 | — |
| 7 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 20.6 | 96 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +2.9 | — |
| 8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 20.6 | 85 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +4.4 | — |
| 9 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 20.4 | 96 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +2.6 | — |
| 10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 20.3 | 82 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +4.1 | — |
| 11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.1 | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +3.7 | — |
| 12 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19.9 | 91 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.54 | +0.6 | — |
| 13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.9 | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +2.1 | — |
| 14 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.8 | 77 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.78 | +3.7 | — |
| 15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.7 | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +3.6 | — |
| 16 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 19.6 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.78 | +6.7 | — |
| 17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.5 | 93 | 6.5 | 1 | — | 0.61 | +1.7 | — |
| 18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.5 | 81 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +3.3 | — |
| 19 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 19.4 | 82 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +3.0 | — |
| 20 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19.4 | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.58 | 0.0 | — |
| 21 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 19.2 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +6.3 | — |
| 22 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 19.1 | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +5.3 | — |
| 23 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.8 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +2.4 | — |
| 24 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 18.8 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.64 | -0.5 | — |
| 25 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 18.7 | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +2.6 | — |
| 26 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 18.6 | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +4.4 | — |
| 27 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 18.6 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +2.4 | — |
| 28 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 18.6 | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +5.6 | — |
| 29 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.4 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.67 | +1.9 | — |
| 30 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 18.3 | 84 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +5.4 | — |
| 31 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.3 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +4.5 | — |
| 32 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 18.2 | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +5.7 | — |
| 33 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.1 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +4.4 | — |
| 34 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.0 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.62 | +1.6 | — |
| 35 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | 17.9 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +6.4 | — |
| 36 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 17.8 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +4.9 | — |
| 37 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 17.7 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.50 | -0.1 | — |
| 38 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 17.7 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | -0.1 | — |
| 39 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 17.6 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +1.2 | — |
| 40 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 17.6 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +6.6 | — |
| 41 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 17.3 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +6.4 | — |
| 42 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 17.3 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | -2.1 | — |
| 43 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 17.3 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +4.4 | — |
| 44 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 17.3 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +3.6 | — |
| 45 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.2 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.50 | +3.0 | — |
| 46 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 17.2 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.6 | — |
| 47 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.1 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +2.9 | — |
| 48 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.1 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.8 | — |
| 49 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 17.1 | 85 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +3.3 | — |
| 50 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.1 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.8 | — |
| 51 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 17.0 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.4 | — |
| 52 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 16.9 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.4 | — |
| 53 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 16.9 | 79 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.59 | +4.0 | — |
| 54 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 16.8 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.3 | — |
| 55 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 16.5 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.3 | — |
| 56 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 16.4 | 77 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +3.4 | — |
| 57 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 16.3 | 77 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +3.4 | — |
| 58 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 16.2 | 78 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.50 | +5.9 | — |
| 59 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 16.2 | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +5.3 | — |
| 60 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 16.1 | 64 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +2.7 | — |
| 61 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 16.1 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +5.0 | — |
| 62 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 16.1 | 75 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +3.6 | — |
| 63 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 15.9 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +4.8 | — |
| 64 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 15.9 | 76 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +5.3 | — |
| 65 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 15.8 | 73 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +2.9 | — |
| 66 | Matthew GoldenWR · GB | 15.8 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +10.4 | — |
| 67 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 15.7 | 75 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +5.1 | — |
| 68 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 15.7 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.8 | — |
| 69 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 15.7 | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +5.1 | — |
| 70 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 15.7 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +2.3 | — |
| 71 | George PickensWR · DAL | 15.7 | 71 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +1.0 | — |
| 72 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 15.6 | 78 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +4.7 | — |
| 73 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 15.6 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +4.4 | — |
| 74 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 15.5 | 77 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.57 | +4.6 | — |
| 75 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 15.5 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.6 | — |
| 76 | A.J. BrownWR · NE | 15.4 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.50 | +2.8 | — |
| 77 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 15.3 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +5.5 | — |
| 78 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 15.3 | 71 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +5.0 | — |
| 79 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 15.3 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +4.4 | — |
| 80 | Josh DownsWR · IND | 15.3 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +7.2 | — |
| 81 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 15.3 | 67 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.69 | +5.0 | — |
| 82 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 15.2 | 69 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.64 | +3.1 | — |
| 83 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 15.2 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +4.6 | — |
| 84 | George PickensWR · DAL | 15.1 | 67 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +0.4 | — |
| 85 | George PickensWR · DAL | 15.1 | 68 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +0.4 | — |
| 86 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 15.0 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +2.5 | — |
| 87 | Mike EvansWR · SF | 15.0 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.69 | +6.0 | — |
| 88 | Jalen CokerWR · CAR | 14.8 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +7.2 | — |
| 89 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 14.8 | 72 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +3.9 | — |
| 90 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 14.8 | 59 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.74 | +1.4 | — |
| 91 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 14.7 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +0.5 | — |
| 92 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 14.7 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +1.0 | — |
| 93 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 14.7 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +2.2 | — |
| 94 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.6 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.63 | -0.1 | — |
| 95 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 14.6 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +3.7 | — |
| 96 | A.J. BrownWR · NE | 14.6 | 65 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +2.0 | — |
| 97 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 14.6 | 66 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +3.7 | — |
| 98 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 14.5 | 69 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +1.6 | — |
| 99 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 14.5 | 66 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +3.9 | — |
| 100 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 14.5 | 72 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +3.5 | — |
| 101 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 14.4 | 65 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +3.3 | — |
| 102 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 14.4 | 62 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.62 | +1.0 | — |
| 103 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 14.3 | 65 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +3.4 | — |
| 104 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 14.3 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +4.5 | — |
| 105 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 14.2 | 66 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +3.3 | — |
| 106 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 14.2 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +2.0 | — |
| 107 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.1 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.45 | -0.6 | — |
| 108 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 14.1 | 69 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +3.2 | — |
| 109 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.1 | 68 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | -0.6 | — |
| 110 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 14.1 | 64 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +1.6 | — |
| 111 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.0 | 65 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.51 | -0.7 | — |
| 112 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 14.0 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +1.8 | — |
| 113 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 13.9 | 65 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +1.8 | — |
| 114 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 13.9 | 62 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +4.1 | — |
| 115 | Jordan AddisonWR · MIN | 13.9 | 63 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +5.1 | — |
| 116 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | 13.8 | 61 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +2.3 | — |
| 117 | D.J. MooreWR · BUF | 13.8 | 65 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +4.5 | — |
| 118 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 13.8 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +3.5 | — |
| 119 | Stefon DiggsWR · WAS | 13.7 | 58 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.7 | — |
| 120 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 13.7 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +0.3 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →