How accurate these were
1 week · 253 player-weeks graded
6.13
avg miss (PPR)
5.49
last-season average
-3.85
bias · ran rich
Last season's per-game average is currently beating these by 0.64 PPR. Posting that is the point of running the test.
Fantasy
Market Projections
113 players across 17 games · lines as of 2026-09-13 13:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 28.8 | 140 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +12.4 | — |
| 2 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | 27.4 | 150 | 9.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +17.3 | — |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 27.1 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +10.9 | — |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 26.7 | 130 | 9.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +10.5 | — |
| 5 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 26.2 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +15.6 | — |
| 6 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 25.3 | 130 | 9.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +11.0 | — |
| 7 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 23.5 | 120 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +10.6 | — |
| 8 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 23.4 | 170 | 6.5 | — | — | — | +12.5 | — |
| 9 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 22.3 | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +9.4 | — |
| 10 | George PickensWR · DAL | 22.3 | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +7.6 | — |
| 11 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 22.2 | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +9.7 | — |
| 12 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 21.8 | 110 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +9.6 | A- |
| 13 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 21.6 | 110 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +10.7 | — |
| 14 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 20.7 | 110 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +10.0 | — |
| 15 | D.J. MooreWR · BUF | 20.1 | 110 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +10.8 | A |
| 16 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 20.0 | 110 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +8.9 | — |
| 17 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 20.0 | 92 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.54 | +0.7 | — |
| 18 | Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI | 19.9 | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +12.0 | — |
| 19 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 19.9 | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +10.1 | — |
| 20 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | 19.7 | 110 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +8.3 | — |
| 21 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | 19.2 | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +5.2 | A- |
| 22 | Emeka EgbukaWR · TB | 19.1 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +8.8 | — |
| 23 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | 19.0 | 110 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +7.6 | — |
| 24 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 18.7 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +8.4 | A- |
| 25 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 18.7 | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +8.1 | — |
| 26 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.2 | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +4.5 | — |
| 27 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 17.9 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +0.1 | — |
| 28 | Chris GodwinWR · TB | 17.7 | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +9.5 | — |
| 29 | D.J. MooreWR · BUF | 17.4 | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +8.1 | A |
| 30 | DK MetcalfWR · PIT | 17.0 | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +6.0 | — |
| 31 | Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | 16.6 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +7.2 | A |
| 32 | Josh DownsWR · IND | 16.3 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +8.2 | — |
| 33 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN | 15.9 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +4.1 | — |
| 34 | Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI | 15.8 | 110 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.22 | +9.8 | — |
| 35 | Rome OdunzeWR · CHI | 15.8 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +5.3 | — |
| 36 | Michael Pittman Jr.WR · PIT | 15.7 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +5.1 | — |
| 37 | Michael Pittman Jr.WR · PIT | 15.7 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.38 | — | — |
| 38 | Stefon DiggsWR · WAS | 15.5 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +4.5 | — |
| 39 | Courtland SuttonWR · DEN | 15.4 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.32 | +4.0 | — |
| 40 | Jalen CokerWR · CAR | 15.3 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +7.7 | — |
| 41 | Carnell TateWR · TEN | 15.3 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.30 | — | — |
| 42 | A.J. BrownWR · NE | 15.1 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +2.5 | — |
| 43 | Xavier WorthyWR · KC | 15.0 | 80 | 5.5 | 1 | — | 0.25 | +7.6 | — |
| 44 | Terry McLaurinWR · WAS | 15.0 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.25 | +5.3 | — |
| 45 | Devaughn VeleWR · NO | 14.9 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +7.9 | — |
| 46 | Jalen McMillanWR · TB | 14.3 | 80 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.32 | +7.5 | — |
| 47 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX | 14.3 | 80 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.31 | +5.4 | — |
| 48 | Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX | 14.3 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.31 | +4.4 | — |
| 49 | Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC | 14.1 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +2.8 | — |
| 50 | Tre TuckerWR · LV | 14.1 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.27 | +5.3 | — |
| 51 | Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | 13.9 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.25 | +4.5 | A |
| 52 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 13.5 | 53 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.62 | +0.1 | — |
| 53 | KC ConcepcionWR · CLE | 13.5 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.17 | — | — |
| 54 | Jordan AddisonWR · MIN | 13.2 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +4.4 | — |
| 55 | Keenan AllenWR · IND | 13.1 | 60 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.27 | +3.3 | — |
| 56 | Jayden ReedWR · GB | 13.0 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +5.0 | — |
| 57 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARI | 12.9 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +3.5 | — |
| 58 | Matthew GoldenWR · GB | 12.8 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.22 | +7.5 | — |
| 59 | Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ | 12.7 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.21 | +7.0 | — |
| 60 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | 12.7 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.20 | +1.2 | — |
| 61 | Jalen NailorWR · LV | 12.6 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +6.6 | — |
| 62 | Caleb DouglasWR · MIA | 12.5 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.17 | — | — |
| 63 | Kendrick BourneWR · ARI | 12.2 | 60 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.13 | +5.7 | — |
| 64 | Mike EvansWR · SF | 12.2 | 51 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +3.2 | — |
| 65 | Alec PierceWR · IND | 12.0 | 70 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.25 | +1.2 | — |
| 66 | Malachi FieldsWR · NYG | 11.9 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.24 | — | — |
| 67 | Jerry JeudyWR · CLE | 11.6 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.19 | +4.7 | — |
| 68 | Pat BryantWR · DEN | 11.6 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +5.7 | — |
| 69 | Rashod BatemanWR · BAL | 11.3 | 60 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +6.4 | — |
| 70 | Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL | 10.9 | 60 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +3.6 | — |
| 71 | Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU | 10.9 | 60 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +2.7 | — |
| 72 | Makai LemonWR · PHI | 10.7 | 40 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.21 | — | — |
| 73 | Calvin RidleyWR · TEN | 10.6 | 60 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.19 | +4.0 | — |
| 74 | Darnell MooneyWR · NYG | 10.6 | 60 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.19 | +4.9 | — |
| 75 | Denzel BostonWR · CLE | 10.6 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.18 | — | — |
| 76 | Malik WashingtonWR · MIA | 10.6 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +3.8 | — |
| 77 | Jack BechWR · LV | 10.4 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | — | +6.6 | — |
| 78 | Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC | 10.3 | 70 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.15 | +3.7 | — |
| 79 | Tre HarrisWR · LAC | 9.7 | 50 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.21 | +4.9 | — |
| 80 | Ted HurstWR · TB | 9.7 | 50 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.20 | — | — |
| 81 | Chris BellWR · MIA | 9.4 | 50 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.16 | — | — |
| 82 | Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET | 8.9 | 50 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +3.3 | A- |
| 83 | Ja'Kobi LaneWR · BAL | 8.7 | 50 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.21 | — | — |
| 84 | Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET | 8.7 | 50 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.20 | +3.0 | A- |
| 85 | Jauan JenningsWR · MIN | 8.7 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.20 | -1.6 | — |
| 86 | Romeo DoubsWR · NE | 8.7 | 36 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.27 | -0.7 | — |
| 87 | Xavier LegetteWR · CAR | 8.7 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.20 | +2.6 | — |
| 88 | Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU | 8.6 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.19 | +2.4 | — |
| 89 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR · NYG | 8.2 | 50 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.13 | — | — |
| 90 | Andrei IosivasWR · CIN | 7.8 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.23 | +1.7 | — |
| 91 | De'Zhaun StriblingWR · SF | 7.8 | 30 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.22 | — | — |
| 92 | Keon ColemanWR · BUF | 7.7 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.21 | -0.2 | A |
| 93 | KaVontae TurpinWR · DAL | 7.7 | 25 | 2.5 | 20 | — | 0.14 | +1.9 | — |
| 94 | Deebo SamuelWR · SF | 7.6 | 29 | 2.5 | 8 | — | 0.25 | -2.9 | — |
| 95 | Joshua PalmerWR · BUF | 7.6 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.18 | — | A |
| 96 | Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA | 7.5 | 32 | 2.5 | 3 | — | 0.26 | -0.7 | — |
| 97 | Cooper KuppWR · SEA | 7.4 | 30 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +0.4 | — |
| 98 | Jaylin NoelWR · HOU | 7.4 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.16 | +2.8 | — |
| 99 | Keon ColemanWR · BUF | 7.4 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.15 | -0.5 | A |
| 100 | Kalif RaymondWR · CHI | 7.3 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.14 | +2.4 | — |
| 101 | Roman WilsonWR · PIT | 7.1 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.12 | +2.1 | — |
| 102 | Joshua PalmerWR · BUF | 7.1 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.11 | — | A |
| 103 | Marvin MimsWR · DEN | 7.1 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.11 | +0.8 | — |
| 104 | Omar Cooper Jr.WR · NYJ | 7.0 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.08 | — | — |
| 105 | Tez JohnsonWR · TB | 6.0 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.17 | -0.2 | — |
| 106 | Demario DouglasWR · NE | 5.7 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.13 | -0.3 | — |
| 107 | Jahan DotsonWR · ATL | 5.6 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.12 | +1.6 | — |
| 108 | Cyrus AllenWR · KC | 5.6 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.10 | — | — |
| 109 | Jalen TolbertWR · MIA | 5.6 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.10 | +1.0 | — |
| 110 | Mack HollinsWR · NE | 3.2 | 11 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.10 | -4.5 | — |
| 111 | Demarcus RobinsonWR · SF | 3.1 | 10 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.11 | -1.6 | — |
| 112 | Jordan WhittingtonWR · LAR | 2.9 | 8 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.10 | -0.5 | — |
| 113 | Marquise BrownWR · PHI | 1.3 | 2 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.11 | -6.8 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →