How accurate these were
1 week · 253 player-weeks graded
6.13
avg miss (PPR)
5.49
last-season average
-3.85
bias · ran rich
Last season's per-game average is currently beating these by 0.64 PPR. Posting that is the point of running the test.
Fantasy
Market Projections
62 players across 17 games · lines as of 2026-09-15 17:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 34.3 | 60 | 6.5 | 150 | — | 1.15 | +16.0 | A |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 31.8 | 60 | 6.5 | 130 | — | 1.06 | +13.4 | A |
| 3 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 28.7 | 70 | 6.5 | 110 | — | 0.71 | +10.2 | — |
| 4 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 27.3 | 80 | 7.5 | 90 | — | 0.47 | +10.1 | — |
| 5 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 26.8 | 40 | 4.5 | 130 | — | 0.90 | +8.6 | — |
| 6 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 25.8 | 60 | 5.5 | 100 | — | 0.74 | +11.3 | — |
| 7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 24.5 | 50 | 5.5 | 100 | — | 0.69 | — | — |
| 8 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 24.5 | 50 | 5.5 | 100 | — | 0.69 | +14.1 | — |
| 9 | James CookRB · BUF | 24.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 120 | — | 0.64 | — | A |
| 10 | James CookRB · BUF | 24.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 120 | — | 0.64 | +8.9 | A |
| 11 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 23.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 110 | — | 0.61 | +10.3 | — |
| 12 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 22.9 | 50 | 4.5 | 100 | — | 0.58 | +11.3 | — |
| 13 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 22.6 | 25 | 3.5 | 120 | — | 0.78 | +9.3 | — |
| 14 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 22.3 | 25 | 1.5 | 130 | — | 0.90 | +7.9 | — |
| 15 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 20.2 | 25 | 3.5 | 100 | — | 0.72 | +7.6 | — |
| 16 | Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NO | 19.8 | 25 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.65 | — | — |
| 17 | Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NO | 19.8 | 25 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.65 | +6.6 | — |
| 18 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 19.5 | 25 | 3.5 | 100 | — | 0.60 | +7.8 | — |
| 19 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 19.5 | 50 | 4.5 | 70 | — | 0.52 | +7.4 | — |
| 20 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 19.4 | 40 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 0.82 | -1.2 | — |
| 21 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 19.1 | 25 | 2.5 | 110 | — | 0.53 | +6.3 | — |
| 22 | David MontgomeryRB · HOU | 18.9 | 25 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.67 | +9.6 | — |
| 23 | Rico DowdleRB · PIT | 18.6 | 40 | 3.5 | 80 | — | 0.53 | +7.1 | — |
| 24 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 18.1 | 25 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.54 | +10.0 | — |
| 25 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 17.9 | 25 | 3.5 | 120 | — | — | +5.6 | — |
| 26 | Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE | 17.5 | 25 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.43 | +6.6 | — |
| 27 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.1 | — | — | 120 | — | 0.86 | — | A |
| 28 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.1 | — | — | 120 | — | 0.86 | +1.7 | A |
| 29 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | 17.0 | 25 | 3.5 | 80 | — | 0.51 | +10.7 | — |
| 30 | Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN | 16.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 0.31 | +8.0 | — |
| 31 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | 15.9 | 25 | 2.5 | 80 | — | 0.51 | +5.8 | — |
| 32 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 15.4 | 25 | 3.5 | 58 | — | 0.62 | +4.1 | — |
| 33 | Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 14.4 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | — | — | — |
| 34 | J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN | 14.4 | 15 | 1.5 | 90 | — | 0.41 | +4.2 | — |
| 35 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | 14.0 | 40 | 4.5 | 40 | — | 0.27 | +2.9 | — |
| 36 | Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS | 13.9 | 40 | 3.5 | 50 | — | 0.25 | +5.8 | — |
| 37 | MarShawn LloydRB · GB | 13.3 | 25 | 2.5 | 60 | — | 0.40 | — | — |
| 38 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 13.1 | 25 | 3.5 | 50 | — | 0.37 | — | — |
| 39 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 13.1 | 25 | 3.5 | 50 | — | 0.37 | +4.0 | — |
| 40 | Kyle MonangaiRB · CHI | 13.1 | 25 | 2.5 | 60 | — | 0.36 | +4.8 | — |
| 41 | Jonathon BrooksRB · CAR | 13.1 | 25 | 2.5 | 60 | — | 0.36 | — | — |
| 42 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 12.4 | 11 | 1.5 | 56 | — | 0.71 | -1.3 | A- |
| 43 | Woody MarksRB · HOU | 11.8 | 25 | 2.5 | 50 | — | 0.32 | +3.1 | — |
| 44 | Jadarian PriceRB · SEA | 11.0 | 9 | 1.5 | 56 | — | 0.51 | — | — |
| 45 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WAS | 10.9 | 4 | 1.5 | 70 | — | 0.34 | +2.8 | — |
| 46 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX | 9.7 | — | — | 70 | — | 0.46 | +2.1 | — |
| 47 | Samaje PerineRB · CIN | 9.4 | 15 | 2.5 | 40 | — | 0.26 | +3.7 | — |
| 48 | Justice HillRB · BAL | 9.4 | 25 | 3.5 | 25 | — | 0.17 | +2.6 | — |
| 49 | Blake CorumRB · LAR | 8.8 | 3 | 1.5 | 44 | — | 0.45 | +1.6 | — |
| 50 | Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI | 7.8 | — | — | 60 | — | 0.30 | +0.5 | — |
| 51 | George HolaniRB · SEA | 6.9 | 11 | 1.5 | 20 | — | 0.40 | +3.0 | — |
| 52 | Najee HarrisRB · NYG | 6.6 | — | — | 50 | — | 0.28 | +0.6 | — |
| 53 | Keaton MitchellRB · LAC | 6.3 | — | — | 50 | — | 0.22 | +1.2 | — |
| 54 | Mike Washington Jr.RB · LV | 6.0 | — | — | 50 | — | 0.18 | — | — |
| 55 | Braelon AllenRB · NYJ | 5.5 | — | — | 40 | — | 0.27 | -0.2 | — |
| 56 | TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE | 5.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 19 | — | 0.24 | -5.5 | — |
| 57 | Jordan MasonRB · MIN | 5.3 | — | — | 29 | — | 0.40 | -2.6 | — |
| 58 | Tank BigsbyRB · PHI | 5.2 | — | — | 40 | — | 0.21 | +0.7 | — |
| 59 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · ATL | 5.0 | — | — | 40 | — | 0.18 | +0.5 | — |
| 60 | Emmett JohnsonRB · KC | 4.7 | — | — | 40 | — | 0.13 | — | — |
| 61 | Malik DavisRB · DAL | 3.7 | — | — | 30 | — | 0.13 | -1.4 | — |
| 62 | Corey KinerRB · NE | 1.6 | — | — | 9 | — | 0.12 | -3.5 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →