How accurate these were
7 weeks · 1,752 player-weeks graded
4.62
avg miss (PPR)
5.04
last-season average
+0.48
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.42 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 121 games · lines as of 2026-10-25 13:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.6 | 43 | 4.5 | 96 | — | 1.21 | +7.2 | — |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.3 | 38 | 4.5 | 98 | — | 1.21 | +6.9 | — |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 91 | — | 1.27 | +6.8 | — |
| 4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.8 | 36 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.13 | +5.4 | — |
| 5 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 23.2 | 30 | 4.5 | 91 | — | 1.11 | +4.7 | — |
| 6 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 23.1 | 44 | 5.5 | 81 | — | 0.87 | +4.6 | — |
| 7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.0 | 32 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.07 | +4.7 | — |
| 8 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.9 | 37 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.96 | +4.3 | — |
| 9 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 22.6 | 31 | 4.5 | 87 | — | 1.06 | +4.2 | — |
| 10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 22.4 | 29 | 4.5 | 88 | — | 1.05 | +4.1 | — |
| 11 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.4 | 30 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 1.10 | +3.9 | — |
| 12 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 22.1 | 48 | 5.5 | 58 | — | 1.01 | +1.4 | — |
| 13 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 22.0 | 46 | 5.5 | 68 | — | 0.86 | +1.4 | — |
| 14 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 21.4 | 41 | 4.5 | 65 | — | 1.07 | +0.8 | — |
| 15 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 21.1 | 28 | 3.5 | 91 | — | 0.97 | +2.6 | — |
| 16 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 20.8 | 22 | 2.5 | 94 | — | 1.14 | +2.7 | — |
| 17 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 20.7 | 37 | 4.5 | 79 | — | 0.78 | +2.2 | — |
| 18 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.5 | 39 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 1.01 | -0.1 | — |
| 19 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.4 | 39 | 4.5 | 58 | — | 1.05 | -0.2 | — |
| 20 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 24 | 3.5 | 95 | — | 0.84 | +9.9 | — |
| 21 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 24 | 3.5 | 95 | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| 22 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 20.2 | 31 | 3.5 | 81 | — | 0.94 | +1.7 | — |
| 23 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | — | — |
| 24 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | +9.5 | — |
| 25 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | +9.2 | — |
| 26 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | — | — |
| 27 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 19.6 | 18 | 2.5 | 91 | — | 1.05 | +1.4 | — |
| 28 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.5 | 21 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.83 | — | — |
| 29 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.5 | 21 | 3.5 | 90 | — | 0.83 | +9.1 | — |
| 30 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 19.5 | 36 | 4.5 | 72 | — | 0.71 | +0.9 | — |
| 31 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 19.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 0.81 | -1.4 | — |
| 32 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | +8.7 | — |
| 33 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | — | — |
| 34 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 18.3 | 8 | 1.5 | 100 | — | 1.01 | +3.9 | — |
| 35 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 18.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 80 | — | 0.74 | +7.7 | — |
| 36 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 18.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 80 | — | 0.74 | — | — |
| 37 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 18.1 | 11 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 1.02 | +3.7 | — |
| 38 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 18.0 | 20 | 2.5 | 85 | — | 0.85 | +5.4 | — |
| 39 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 17.8 | 38 | 4.5 | 50 | — | 0.77 | -2.8 | — |
| 40 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 17.7 | 7 | 1.5 | 95 | — | 1.02 | +3.4 | — |
| 41 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 17.7 | 27 | 3.5 | 70 | — | 0.77 | +4.1 | — |
| 42 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 17.7 | 23 | 3.5 | 75 | — | 0.75 | +5.6 | — |
| 43 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.6 | 21 | 2.5 | 83 | — | 0.79 | -0.6 | — |
| 44 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 17.5 | 25 | 3.5 | 77 | — | 0.66 | +5.4 | — |
| 45 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.5 | 17 | 2.5 | 85 | — | 0.82 | -0.6 | — |
| 46 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.4 | 19 | 2.5 | 80 | — | 0.85 | +2.0 | — |
| 47 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.4 | 19 | 2.5 | 80 | — | 0.85 | — | — |
| 48 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.4 | 18 | 2.5 | 78 | — | 0.90 | -0.8 | — |
| 49 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.1 | 17 | 2.5 | 82 | — | 0.81 | -1.0 | — |
| 50 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 17.0 | 23 | 3.5 | 64 | — | 0.82 | +2.5 | — |
| 51 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.9 | 14 | 2.5 | 77 | — | 0.91 | +3.6 | — |
| 52 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 70 | — | 0.70 | +4.1 | A |
| 53 | James CookRB · BUF | 16.9 | 9 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 0.86 | +1.5 | — |
| 54 | James CookRB · BUF | 16.9 | 9 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 0.86 | — | — |
| 55 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 16.9 | 20 | 3.5 | 67 | — | 0.79 | — | — |
| 56 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 16.9 | 20 | 3.5 | 67 | — | 0.79 | +7.7 | — |
| 57 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 16.8 | 23 | 2.5 | 71 | — | 0.82 | +3.1 | — |
| 58 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 16.7 | 27 | 3.5 | 68 | — | 0.63 | +4.6 | — |
| 59 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 16.7 | 28 | 3.5 | 69 | — | 0.59 | -0.5 | — |
| 60 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.6 | 14 | 2.5 | 70 | — | 0.97 | +3.3 | — |
| 61 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 16.6 | 19 | 2.5 | 69 | — | 0.89 | +2.9 | — |
| 62 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 16.6 | 8 | 1.5 | 92 | — | 0.86 | +2.2 | — |
| 63 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.5 | 15 | 2.5 | 68 | — | 0.97 | +3.2 | — |
| 64 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 16.4 | 24 | 3.5 | 60 | — | 0.77 | +2.8 | — |
| 65 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 16.4 | 22 | 3.5 | 65 | — | 0.72 | +6.0 | — |
| 66 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 16.4 | 22 | 3.5 | 65 | — | 0.72 | — | — |
| 67 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 16.4 | 27 | 4.5 | 59 | — | 0.56 | +4.3 | — |
| 68 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.4 | 12 | 1.5 | 77 | — | 1.01 | +3.0 | — |
| 69 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 16.3 | 27 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 0.52 | -0.8 | — |
| 70 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.3 | 21 | 3.5 | 59 | — | 0.82 | +1.8 | — |
| 71 | Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 16.3 | 18 | 3.5 | 66 | — | 0.75 | — | — |
| 72 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 16.3 | 8 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.99 | +1.9 | — |
| 73 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.3 | 26 | 3.5 | 64 | — | 0.64 | +3.5 | A |
| 74 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 16.2 | 22 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.73 | +7.0 | — |
| 75 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 16.2 | 22 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.73 | — | — |
| 76 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.1 | 24 | 3.5 | 59 | — | 0.74 | +1.6 | — |
| 77 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 16.1 | 15 | 2.5 | 73 | — | 0.82 | +3.8 | — |
| 78 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.1 | 20 | 3.5 | 60 | — | 0.78 | +1.6 | — |
| 79 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.1 | 24 | 3.5 | 64 | — | 0.64 | +1.5 | — |
| 80 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.0 | 27 | 3.5 | 56 | — | 0.72 | +3.2 | A |
| 81 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 16.0 | 30 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.58 | +3.9 | — |
| 82 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 16.0 | 7 | 1.5 | 84 | — | 0.92 | +1.6 | — |
| 83 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.0 | 27 | 3.5 | 55 | — | 0.73 | +3.2 | A |
| 84 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.0 | 11 | 2.5 | 76 | — | 0.81 | +2.7 | — |
| 85 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 16.0 | 16 | 2.5 | 77 | — | 0.71 | +3.2 | — |
| 86 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 15.9 | 19 | 3.5 | 65 | — | 0.69 | +3.3 | — |
| 87 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 15.9 | 16 | 2.5 | 64 | — | 0.92 | +3.3 | — |
| 88 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 15.9 | 21 | 3.5 | 60 | — | 0.73 | +3.1 | A |
| 89 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 15.9 | 25 | 2.5 | 67 | — | 0.71 | +3.8 | — |
| 90 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 15.8 | 18 | 2.5 | 64 | — | 0.87 | +2.2 | — |
| 91 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 10 | 1.5 | 84 | — | 0.83 | — | — |
| 92 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 10 | 1.5 | 84 | — | 0.83 | +0.4 | — |
| 93 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 13 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.83 | — | — |
| 94 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 13 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.83 | +0.4 | — |
| 95 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 20 | 2.5 | 75 | — | 0.64 | +0.4 | — |
| 96 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 20 | 2.5 | 75 | — | 0.64 | — | — |
| 97 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 15.7 | 21 | 2.5 | 61 | — | 0.85 | +3.1 | — |
| 98 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.7 | 9 | 1.5 | 87 | — | 0.78 | — | — |
| 99 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.7 | 9 | 1.5 | 87 | — | 0.78 | +0.3 | — |
| 100 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 15.7 | 28 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.57 | -1.4 | — |
| 101 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 15.7 | 18 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.73 | +2.9 | A |
| 102 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 15.6 | 14 | 2.5 | 76 | — | 0.70 | +2.8 | — |
| 103 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 15.5 | 19 | 2.5 | 70 | — | 0.70 | -2.6 | — |
| 104 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 15.5 | 24 | 3.5 | 59 | — | 0.63 | +4.1 | — |
| 105 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 15.4 | 22 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.63 | +3.8 | — |
| 106 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 15.4 | 19 | 2.5 | 66 | — | 0.76 | +7.3 | — |
| 107 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 15.3 | 13 | 2.5 | 65 | — | 0.85 | +2.0 | — |
| 108 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 15.3 | 19 | 2.5 | 70 | — | 0.67 | +3.6 | — |
| 109 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 15.3 | 16 | 2.5 | 69 | — | 0.73 | +7.2 | — |
| 110 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 15.2 | 29 | 3.5 | 49 | — | 0.67 | +2.4 | A |
| 111 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | 15.2 | 19 | 2.5 | 60 | — | 0.81 | +1.5 | — |
| 112 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 15.2 | 16 | 2.5 | 71 | — | 0.68 | +7.1 | — |
| 113 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 15.0 | 17 | 2.5 | 68 | — | 0.69 | +6.9 | — |
| 114 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 15.0 | 6 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.82 | +0.7 | — |
| 115 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 14.9 | 13 | 2.5 | 62 | — | 0.84 | +2.6 | — |
| 116 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 14.9 | 15 | 2.5 | 68 | — | 0.70 | +6.8 | — |
| 117 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 14.9 | 12 | 1.5 | 79 | — | 0.73 | +2.1 | — |
| 118 | Braelon AllenRB · NYJ | 14.9 | 14 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.64 | +9.1 | — |
| 119 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 14.8 | 24 | 2.5 | 64 | — | 0.59 | +3.1 | — |
| 120 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 14.7 | 18 | 2.5 | 66 | — | 0.66 | +3.1 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →