How accurate these were
1 week · 253 player-weeks graded
6.13
avg miss (PPR)
5.49
last-season average
-3.85
bias · ran rich
Last season's per-game average is currently beating these by 0.64 PPR. Posting that is the point of running the test.
Fantasy
Market Projections
51 players across 17 games · lines as of 2026-09-13 17:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 25.5 | 130 | 10.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +9.9 | — |
| 2 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 20.3 | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +11.1 | — |
| 3 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 18.9 | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +9.1 | — |
| 4 | Michael MayerTE · LV | 18.0 | 80 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +12.4 | — |
| 5 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 18.0 | 100 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +9.0 | A |
| 6 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 17.0 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +7.4 | — |
| 7 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 16.8 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +7.2 | — |
| 8 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 16.7 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +6.7 | — |
| 9 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 16.5 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +7.1 | — |
| 10 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 16.5 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +4.5 | — |
| 11 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 15.6 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +5.0 | — |
| 12 | Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | 15.1 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +7.9 | — |
| 13 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 15.0 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +6.0 | A |
| 14 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 14.9 | 80 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.25 | +9.7 | — |
| 15 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE | 14.9 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.24 | +4.7 | — |
| 16 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 14.8 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.22 | +4.0 | — |
| 17 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 14.8 | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.22 | — | — |
| 18 | Brenton StrangeTE · JAX | 14.3 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.31 | +5.8 | — |
| 19 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 14.3 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +3.2 | — |
| 20 | Cade OttonTE · TB | 14.3 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +6.8 | — |
| 21 | Dalton SchultzTE · HOU | 14.1 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.27 | +4.8 | — |
| 22 | Jake FergusonTE · DAL | 13.3 | 60 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +3.5 | — |
| 23 | Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT | 11.8 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.22 | +4.8 | — |
| 24 | T.J. HockensonTE · MIN | 11.6 | 50 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.19 | +4.6 | — |
| 25 | Mason TaylorTE · NYJ | 10.6 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +4.1 | — |
| 26 | Evan EngramTE · DEN | 10.5 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.17 | +4.3 | — |
| 27 | Mike GesickiTE · CIN | 10.0 | 50 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +4.3 | — |
| 28 | Greg DulcichTE · MIA | 9.4 | 50 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.17 | +3.0 | — |
| 29 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 8.8 | 35 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.32 | -0.5 | — |
| 30 | Darren WallerTE · CAR | 8.7 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.21 | +0.5 | — |
| 31 | George KittleTE · SF | 8.6 | 34 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.29 | -3.2 | — |
| 32 | Gunnar HelmTE · TEN | 8.6 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.19 | +2.9 | — |
| 33 | Theo JohnsonTE · NYG | 8.6 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +0.8 | — |
| 34 | Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT | 8.5 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.17 | +2.9 | — |
| 35 | A.J. BarnerTE · SEA | 8.0 | 26 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +0.1 | — |
| 36 | Cole KmetTE · CHI | 7.7 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.21 | +2.7 | — |
| 37 | Dawson KnoxTE · BUF | 7.5 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +1.3 | A+ |
| 38 | Charlie KolarTE · LAC | 7.5 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.17 | +4.0 | — |
| 39 | Dawson KnoxTE · BUF | 7.3 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.14 | +1.0 | A+ |
| 40 | Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ | 7.1 | 40 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.12 | — | — |
| 41 | Tommy TrembleTE · CAR | 5.9 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.16 | +1.3 | — |
| 42 | David NjokuTE · LAC | 5.8 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.15 | -1.3 | — |
| 43 | Erick AllTE · CIN | 5.8 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.14 | — | — |
| 44 | Colby ParkinsonTE · LAR | 5.7 | 19 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.22 | -2.6 | — |
| 45 | Noah GrayTE · KC | 5.5 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.10 | +2.1 | — |
| 46 | Terrance FergusonTE · LAR | 5.3 | 25 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.22 | +0.3 | — |
| 47 | Adam TrautmanTE · DEN | 4.6 | 25 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.10 | +0.5 | — |
| 48 | Tyler HigbeeTE · LAR | 4.3 | 17 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.19 | -2.2 | — |
| 49 | Elijah ArroyoTE · SEA | 3.9 | 15 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.16 | +0.3 | — |
| 50 | Jake TongesTE · SF | 3.2 | 9 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.14 | -4.8 | — |
| 51 | Josh OliverTE · MIN | 1.6 | 6 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.10 | -3.2 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →