How accurate these were
7 weeks · 1,752 player-weeks graded
4.62
avg miss (PPR)
5.04
last-season average
+0.48
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.42 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 121 games · lines as of 2026-10-11 16:10
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 20.9 | 86 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +5.3 | — |
| 2 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 19.1 | 75 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.69 | +3.5 | — |
| 3 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 18.7 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.69 | +6.7 | — |
| 4 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 17.3 | 70 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +1.7 | — |
| 5 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 17.3 | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +5.3 | — |
| 6 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 17.2 | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +5.2 | — |
| 7 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 16.7 | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +4.7 | — |
| 8 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 16.5 | 63 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +0.9 | — |
| 9 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 16.4 | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +4.4 | — |
| 10 | George KittleTE · SF | 16.2 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.59 | +4.4 | — |
| 11 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 15.9 | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +0.3 | — |
| 12 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 15.8 | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +0.2 | — |
| 13 | George KittleTE · SF | 15.8 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +4.0 | — |
| 14 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 15.6 | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.42 | 0.0 | — |
| 15 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 15.4 | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +5.6 | — |
| 16 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 14.7 | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.42 | -0.9 | — |
| 17 | George KittleTE · SF | 13.7 | 65 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +1.9 | — |
| 18 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 13.6 | 54 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +8.4 | — |
| 19 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 13.4 | 56 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.57 | +3.4 | A |
| 20 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 13.4 | 50 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +3.8 | — |
| 21 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 13.2 | 49 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +3.4 | — |
| 22 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 13.0 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +4.0 | — |
| 23 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 12.9 | 50 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.3 | — |
| 24 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 12.8 | 55 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +3.6 | — |
| 25 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 12.8 | 54 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +3.2 | — |
| 26 | Dalton SchultzTE · HOU | 12.6 | 50 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +3.3 | — |
| 27 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 12.6 | 52 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +2.5 | A |
| 28 | George KittleTE · SF | 12.5 | 55 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +0.7 | — |
| 29 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 12.4 | 50 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +7.2 | — |
| 30 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 12.4 | 54 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +3.4 | — |
| 31 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 12.4 | 51 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +1.3 | — |
| 32 | Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | 12.3 | 46 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +5.1 | — |
| 33 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 12.3 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.3 | A |
| 34 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 12.2 | 54 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +3.2 | — |
| 35 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 12.2 | 52 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +1.1 | — |
| 36 | Michael MayerTE · LV | 12.0 | 45 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +6.4 | A |
| 37 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 12.0 | 51 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +3.0 | — |
| 38 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 12.0 | 51 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +2.8 | — |
| 39 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 11.9 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +2.4 | — |
| 40 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 11.9 | 49 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +2.3 | — |
| 41 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 11.8 | 44 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +2.5 | — |
| 42 | George KittleTE · SF | 11.8 | 48 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | 0.0 | — |
| 43 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 11.8 | 48 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +2.8 | — |
| 44 | Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | 11.7 | 44 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +4.5 | — |
| 45 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 11.7 | 48 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +1.9 | — |
| 46 | Terrance FergusonTE · LAR | 11.7 | 51 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +6.7 | — |
| 47 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 11.7 | 48 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.2 | — |
| 48 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 11.6 | 51 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +0.5 | — |
| 49 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 11.5 | 44 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +0.4 | — |
| 50 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 11.4 | 44 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +1.8 | — |
| 51 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 11.4 | 49 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.34 | -0.6 | — |
| 52 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 11.3 | 47 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +1.8 | — |
| 53 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 11.3 | 48 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +1.5 | — |
| 54 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 11.2 | 46 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +0.5 | — |
| 55 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 11.1 | 45 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +1.1 | A |
| 56 | Sam LaPortaTE · DET | 11.1 | 46 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +1.6 | — |
| 57 | Dalton SchultzTE · HOU | 11.1 | 45 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +1.8 | — |
| 58 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 11.1 | 47 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.32 | +1.0 | A |
| 59 | T.J. HockensonTE · MIN | 11.0 | 39 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +4.0 | — |
| 60 | Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ | 11.0 | 44 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | — | — |
| 61 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 10.9 | 43 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +1.8 | — |
| 62 | T.J. HockensonTE · MIN | 10.9 | 43 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +3.9 | — |
| 63 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 10.9 | 43 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +1.1 | — |
| 64 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 10.9 | 47 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +5.6 | — |
| 65 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 10.8 | 44 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +5.6 | — |
| 66 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 10.8 | 43 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +1.4 | — |
| 67 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 10.7 | 42 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +0.9 | — |
| 68 | Michael MayerTE · LV | 10.7 | 42 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +5.1 | A |
| 69 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 10.6 | 45 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +1.5 | — |
| 70 | Dalton SchultzTE · HOU | 10.6 | 40 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +1.2 | — |
| 71 | T.J. HockensonTE · MIN | 10.5 | 41 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +3.5 | — |
| 72 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 10.5 | 42 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.31 | +1.1 | — |
| 73 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 10.5 | 46 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.40 | -0.6 | — |
| 74 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 10.4 | 42 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +5.2 | — |
| 75 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 10.4 | 43 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.27 | -0.2 | — |
| 76 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 10.4 | 44 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.42 | -0.7 | — |
| 77 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE | 10.4 | 42 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +0.2 | — |
| 78 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 10.2 | 46 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +1.2 | — |
| 79 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 10.2 | 43 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +0.2 | A |
| 80 | T.J. HockensonTE · MIN | 10.2 | 36 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +3.2 | — |
| 81 | Brenton StrangeTE · JAX | 10.1 | 41 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +1.6 | A- |
| 82 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 10.0 | 44 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.36 | -1.1 | — |
| 83 | George KittleTE · SF | 10.0 | 41 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.41 | -1.8 | — |
| 84 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 10.0 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +0.8 | — |
| 85 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 10.0 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +0.6 | — |
| 86 | Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | 10.0 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +2.8 | — |
| 87 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE | 9.9 | 35 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.32 | -0.3 | — |
| 88 | Darren WallerTE · CAR | 9.7 | 38 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +1.4 | — |
| 89 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 9.7 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +0.5 | — |
| 90 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 9.7 | 42 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +0.3 | — |
| 91 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 9.7 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.38 | -1.0 | — |
| 92 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 9.6 | 41 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.34 | -0.4 | A |
| 93 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 9.6 | 36 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.26 | -0.2 | — |
| 94 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 9.6 | 38 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.22 | — | — |
| 95 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 9.6 | 38 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.22 | -1.2 | — |
| 96 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 9.6 | 44 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +0.2 | — |
| 97 | Tyler HigbeeTE · LAR | 9.6 | 37 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +3.0 | — |
| 98 | Dallas GoedertTE · PHI | 9.5 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.35 | -1.1 | — |
| 99 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 9.4 | 41 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.32 | -1.7 | — |
| 100 | Cade OttonTE · TB | 9.4 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +2.0 | — |
| 101 | Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | 9.4 | 33 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +2.2 | — |
| 102 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 9.3 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | 0.0 | — |
| 103 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE | 9.3 | 38 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.35 | -0.8 | — |
| 104 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 9.3 | 37 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.36 | 0.0 | — |
| 105 | Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC | 9.3 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +1.4 | — |
| 106 | Tyler HigbeeTE · LAR | 9.1 | 36 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.34 | +2.5 | — |
| 107 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 9.0 | 39 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +3.8 | — |
| 108 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 9.0 | 35 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.34 | -0.2 | — |
| 109 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 9.0 | 40 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.26 | 0.0 | — |
| 110 | Brenton StrangeTE · JAX | 9.0 | 37 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +0.5 | A- |
| 111 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE | 8.9 | 37 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.29 | -1.2 | — |
| 112 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 8.9 | 36 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.30 | -1.9 | — |
| 113 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 8.9 | 36 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.30 | — | — |
| 114 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 8.9 | 37 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.28 | -0.6 | — |
| 115 | Brenton StrangeTE · JAX | 8.8 | 35 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.31 | +0.3 | A- |
| 116 | Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT | 8.8 | 38 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +1.7 | — |
| 117 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 8.8 | 33 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | — | — |
| 118 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 8.8 | 33 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | -2.1 | — |
| 119 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 8.8 | 38 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.25 | +3.5 | — |
| 120 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 8.8 | 34 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.32 | -0.6 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →