How accurate these were
1 week · 253 player-weeks graded
6.13
avg miss (PPR)
5.49
last-season average
-3.85
bias · ran rich
Last season's per-game average is currently beating these by 0.64 PPR. Posting that is the point of running the test.
Fantasy
Market Projections
34 players across 17 games · lines as of 2026-09-15 17:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 32.3 | — | — | 50 | 320 | 0.76 | +11.5 | A |
| 2 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 30.8 | — | — | 70 | 300 | 0.32 | +14.9 | — |
| 3 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 30.7 | — | — | 20 | 350 | 0.13 | +14.8 | — |
| 4 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 29.8 | — | — | 60 | 290 | 0.37 | +13.3 | — |
| 5 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 29.7 | — | — | 50 | 300 | 0.47 | +12.0 | — |
| 6 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 28.6 | — | — | 40 | 330 | 0.24 | +14.2 | — |
| 7 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 28.2 | — | — | 50 | 290 | 0.28 | +13.3 | — |
| 8 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 27.9 | — | — | 40 | 300 | 0.33 | +9.3 | — |
| 9 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 27.4 | — | — | 40 | 310 | 0.18 | +9.7 | — |
| 10 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 27.3 | — | — | 40 | 310 | 0.16 | +11.7 | — |
| 11 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 27.1 | — | — | 60 | 300 | 0.53 | +6.3 | A |
| 12 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 27.0 | — | — | 40 | 300 | 0.18 | +9.9 | — |
| 13 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 27.0 | — | — | 25 | 340 | 0.16 | +9.4 | — |
| 14 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 26.1 | — | — | 25 | 310 | 0.21 | +9.5 | — |
| 15 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 25.5 | — | — | 30 | 300 | 0.09 | +10.7 | — |
| 16 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 25.4 | — | — | 30 | 290 | 0.14 | +6.5 | — |
| 17 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 25.3 | — | — | 30 | 280 | 0.20 | +11.5 | — |
| 18 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 24.9 | — | — | 10 | 340 | 0.07 | +8.2 | — |
| 19 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 24.4 | — | — | 8 | 325 | 0.10 | +9.0 | — |
| 20 | Malik WillisQB · MIA | 24.1 | — | — | 70 | 250 | 0.20 | +10.5 | — |
| 21 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 24.0 | — | — | — | 340 | 0.06 | +7.2 | — |
| 22 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 22.8 | — | — | 40 | 290 | 0.20 | +5.6 | — |
| 23 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 22.4 | — | — | 30 | 325 | 0.08 | +6.7 | — |
| 24 | Kirk CousinsQB · LV | 22.2 | — | — | 10 | 275 | 0.04 | +10.5 | — |
| 25 | Aaron RodgersQB · PIT | 21.7 | — | — | 1 | 280 | 0.07 | +7.4 | — |
| 26 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 20.4 | — | — | 40 | 240 | 0.15 | — | — |
| 27 | Geno SmithQB · NYJ | 20.0 | — | — | 20 | 290 | 0.08 | +7.7 | — |
| 28 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 19.5 | — | — | 50 | 181 | 0.22 | +4.0 | — |
| 29 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.1 | — | — | 26 | 231 | 0.22 | -0.2 | — |
| 30 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.4 | — | — | 19 | 239 | 0.17 | +0.6 | — |
| 31 | Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL | 18.1 | — | — | 10 | 270 | 0.06 | +5.8 | — |
| 32 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 16.8 | — | — | 1 | 263 | 0.05 | -2.4 | — |
| 33 | Sam DarnoldQB · SEA | 16.3 | — | — | 6 | 229 | 0.10 | +2.3 | — |
| 34 | Cooper RushQB · ATL | 15.9 | — | — | — | 240 | 0.05 | +7.7 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →