How accurate these were
7 weeks · 1,752 player-weeks graded
4.62
avg miss (PPR)
5.04
last-season average
+0.48
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.42 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 121 games · lines as of 2026-10-31 09:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.5 | — | — | 36 | 247 | 0.85 | +3.7 | — |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.3 | — | — | 34 | 243 | 0.87 | +3.5 | — |
| 3 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 34 | 254 | 0.77 | +3.3 | — |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 37 | 249 | 0.75 | +3.3 | — |
| 5 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 23.8 | — | — | 20 | 252 | 0.29 | +6.0 | — |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.5 | — | — | 34 | 240 | 0.76 | +2.7 | — |
| 7 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.4 | — | — | 32 | 243 | 0.77 | +2.7 | — |
| 8 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 23.0 | — | — | 10 | 274 | 0.18 | +5.5 | — |
| 9 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 22.9 | — | — | 9 | 271 | 0.20 | +5.4 | — |
| 10 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.5 | — | — | 6 | 271 | 0.19 | +6.6 | A- |
| 11 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.5 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.13 | +6.6 | A- |
| 12 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.4 | — | — | 9 | 273 | 0.10 | +6.5 | A- |
| 13 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 22.1 | — | — | 41 | 244 | 0.39 | +6.2 | — |
| 14 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 22.0 | — | — | 2 | 286 | 0.08 | +5.3 | — |
| 15 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 21.9 | — | — | 1 | 282 | 0.10 | +5.2 | — |
| 16 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.7 | — | — | 1 | 281 | 0.07 | +2.5 | — |
| 17 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.4 | — | — | 1 | 277 | 0.05 | +2.2 | — |
| 18 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 21.1 | — | — | 32 | 221 | 0.53 | +0.4 | — |
| 19 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 21.0 | — | — | 1 | 266 | 0.06 | +4.3 | — |
| 20 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 21.0 | — | — | 37 | 226 | 0.39 | +5.5 | — |
| 21 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.7 | — | — | 40 | 210 | 0.40 | +4.8 | — |
| 22 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.6 | — | — | 40 | 220 | 0.32 | +4.7 | — |
| 23 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 20.6 | — | — | 40 | 212 | 0.37 | +5.1 | — |
| 24 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.6 | — | — | 30 | 212 | 0.53 | +2.8 | — |
| 25 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 20.5 | — | — | 30 | 250 | 0.26 | +1.2 | A- |
| 26 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 27 | 217 | 0.51 | +2.6 | — |
| 27 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 32 | 207 | 0.49 | +2.6 | — |
| 28 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.9 | — | — | 18 | 261 | 0.29 | +5.6 | — |
| 29 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 19.9 | — | — | 31 | 219 | 0.36 | +4.0 | — |
| 30 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.9 | — | — | 36 | 214 | 0.29 | +3.4 | — |
| 31 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.9 | — | — | 33 | 230 | 0.24 | +0.6 | A- |
| 32 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.8 | — | — | 27 | 239 | 0.27 | +0.5 | A- |
| 33 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.8 | — | — | 29 | 224 | 0.33 | +0.5 | A- |
| 34 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 19.7 | — | — | 36 | 201 | 0.36 | +4.2 | — |
| 35 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 19.7 | — | — | 25 | 238 | 0.29 | +3.8 | — |
| 36 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.7 | — | — | 31 | 214 | 0.35 | +3.2 | — |
| 37 | Jalon DanielsQB · TB | 19.7 | — | — | 45 | 185 | 0.30 | — | — |
| 38 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.5 | — | — | 16 | 254 | 0.30 | +5.1 | — |
| 39 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.4 | — | — | 24 | 234 | 0.28 | +0.1 | A- |
| 40 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.3 | — | — | 15 | 259 | 0.25 | +0.7 | A- |
| 41 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 28 | 230 | 0.23 | 0.0 | A- |
| 42 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 19.3 | — | — | 20 | 243 | 0.28 | +1.5 | — |
| 43 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 27 | 224 | 0.28 | 0.0 | A- |
| 44 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 19.3 | — | — | 11 | 280 | 0.17 | +1.7 | — |
| 45 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.2 | — | — | 27 | 230 | 0.22 | -0.1 | A- |
| 46 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.2 | — | — | 21 | 243 | 0.24 | +4.8 | — |
| 47 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 19.1 | — | — | 19 | 244 | 0.26 | +1.4 | — |
| 48 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 19.1 | — | — | 18 | 239 | 0.30 | +1.3 | — |
| 49 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.0 | — | — | 18 | 232 | 0.33 | +0.4 | A- |
| 50 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 19.0 | — | — | 24 | 221 | 0.30 | +4.0 | — |
| 51 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 19.0 | — | — | 7 | 290 | 0.12 | +3.6 | — |
| 52 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.9 | — | — | 25 | 226 | 0.24 | +1.2 | — |
| 53 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.9 | — | — | 23 | 237 | 0.20 | +1.8 | — |
| 54 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.8 | — | — | 13 | 268 | 0.15 | +1.3 | — |
| 55 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.7 | — | — | 24 | 230 | 0.20 | +1.0 | — |
| 56 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 18.7 | — | — | 26 | 227 | 0.18 | +3.7 | — |
| 57 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.7 | — | — | 12 | 264 | 0.17 | +1.2 | — |
| 58 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 18.7 | — | — | 30 | 210 | 0.22 | — | — |
| 59 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.16 | +2.9 | — |
| 60 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.6 | — | — | 18 | 237 | 0.24 | +0.8 | — |
| 61 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 267 | 0.18 | +1.1 | — |
| 62 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.6 | — | — | 11 | 269 | 0.14 | +1.1 | — |
| 63 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.6 | — | — | 14 | 240 | 0.28 | +0.8 | — |
| 64 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.6 | — | — | 17 | 231 | 0.28 | -0.1 | A- |
| 65 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.5 | — | — | 24 | 230 | 0.17 | +0.7 | — |
| 66 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.5 | — | — | 16 | 237 | 0.26 | -0.3 | A |
| 67 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.5 | — | — | 20 | 237 | 0.18 | +0.7 | — |
| 68 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.5 | — | — | 19 | 229 | 0.25 | +0.7 | — |
| 69 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 18.5 | — | — | 29 | 191 | 0.34 | +3.0 | — |
| 70 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.4 | — | — | 12 | 241 | 0.28 | -0.2 | A- |
| 71 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.4 | — | — | 19 | 223 | 0.27 | -0.5 | A |
| 72 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 18.3 | — | — | 6 | 278 | 0.11 | +3.0 | — |
| 73 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.3 | — | — | 21 | 230 | 0.18 | +0.6 | — |
| 74 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.3 | — | — | 9 | 265 | 0.15 | +0.8 | — |
| 75 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 18.3 | — | — | 30 | 204 | 0.20 | — | — |
| 76 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.3 | — | — | 16 | 238 | 0.20 | -0.6 | A |
| 77 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.2 | — | — | 20 | 230 | 0.18 | +1.1 | — |
| 78 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 18.2 | — | — | 27 | 208 | 0.21 | +3.2 | — |
| 79 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.2 | — | — | 17 | 224 | 0.27 | -0.5 | A- |
| 80 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 18.1 | — | — | 19 | 222 | 0.24 | +1.0 | — |
| 81 | Marcus MariotaQB · WAS | 18.1 | — | — | 25 | 206 | 0.24 | +5.0 | — |
| 82 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 18.1 | — | — | 12 | 256 | 0.13 | +4.3 | — |
| 83 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 18.1 | — | — | 19 | 225 | 0.21 | +1.0 | — |
| 84 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 18.1 | — | — | 10 | 256 | 0.15 | +3.3 | — |
| 85 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 18.1 | — | — | 16 | 232 | 0.21 | +3.7 | — |
| 86 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.1 | — | — | 20 | 224 | 0.19 | +1.0 | — |
| 87 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 18.0 | — | — | 13 | 243 | 0.18 | +4.2 | — |
| 88 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 18.0 | — | — | 9 | 259 | 0.14 | +2.1 | A- |
| 89 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.0 | — | — | 14 | 226 | 0.27 | -0.6 | A- |
| 90 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 18.0 | — | — | 18 | 233 | 0.16 | +2.4 | — |
| 91 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 18.0 | — | — | 10 | 254 | 0.15 | +4.2 | — |
| 92 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 17.9 | — | — | 21 | 214 | 0.22 | +3.0 | — |
| 93 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 17.9 | — | — | 12 | 237 | 0.22 | +3.6 | — |
| 94 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 17.9 | — | — | 12 | 245 | 0.17 | +3.2 | — |
| 95 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 17.9 | — | — | 10 | 257 | 0.12 | +2.2 | — |
| 96 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 17.9 | — | — | 13 | 228 | 0.26 | +3.5 | — |
| 97 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 17.9 | — | — | 16 | 226 | 0.22 | -0.9 | A |
| 98 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 17.9 | — | — | 14 | 233 | 0.20 | -0.8 | A- |
| 99 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 17.8 | — | — | 10 | 256 | 0.11 | +3.1 | — |
| 100 | Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL | 17.8 | — | — | 25 | 198 | 0.24 | +6.6 | — |
| 101 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 17.8 | — | — | 23 | 205 | 0.23 | +2.8 | — |
| 102 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 17.8 | — | — | 25 | 206 | 0.18 | +0.7 | — |
| 103 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 17.8 | — | — | 7 | 260 | 0.12 | +1.9 | A- |
| 104 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 17.7 | — | — | 16 | 223 | 0.21 | +0.6 | — |
| 105 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 17.7 | — | — | 5 | 263 | 0.13 | +2.4 | — |
| 106 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 17.7 | — | — | 12 | 232 | 0.21 | +1.1 | — |
| 107 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 17.7 | — | — | 15 | 222 | 0.23 | +3.9 | — |
| 108 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 17.7 | — | — | 25 | 203 | 0.18 | +0.6 | — |
| 109 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 17.6 | — | — | 15 | 221 | 0.22 | +0.5 | — |
| 110 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 17.6 | — | — | 18 | 222 | 0.17 | -1.2 | A |
| 111 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 17.6 | — | — | 10 | 251 | 0.10 | +1.7 | A- |
| 112 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 17.6 | — | — | 15 | 222 | 0.21 | +3.2 | — |
| 113 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 17.5 | — | — | 8 | 252 | 0.12 | +2.2 | — |
| 114 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 17.5 | — | — | 19 | 217 | 0.17 | +1.9 | — |
| 115 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 17.5 | — | — | 26 | 192 | 0.21 | — | — |
| 116 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 17.4 | — | — | 10 | 235 | 0.18 | +3.6 | — |
| 117 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 17.4 | — | — | 6 | 254 | 0.12 | +1.5 | A- |
| 118 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 17.4 | — | — | 15 | 221 | 0.19 | +3.6 | — |
| 119 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 17.4 | — | — | 11 | 240 | 0.13 | +2.6 | — |
| 120 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 17.4 | — | — | 12 | 223 | 0.22 | +0.8 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →